Current Prognostic models for overall survival (OS) for men with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC) have become dated. They don’t adequately reflect the many new drugs used in clinical practice.
To develop a relevant model data from a phase III trial of 1,050 men with mCRPC were used (Cancer and Leukemia Group B CALGB-90401 [Alliance]) was evaluated.
The researchers generated a predictive score from the regression coefficients and used to classify men into low- and high-risk groups. The model was assessed for its predictive accuracy using the time-dependent area under the curve (tAUC).
The model included Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status, disease site, lactate dehydrogenase, opioid analgesic use, albumin, hemoglobin, prostate-specific antigen, and alkaline phosphatase.
Median OS values in the high- and low-risk groups, respectively was evaluated and an updated prognostic model for OS in men with mCRPC receiving first-line chemotherapy was developed and validated.
This model can be used to predict OS in clinical practice and serve as a basis to select men to participate in trials on the basis of their prognosis.
J Clin Oncol. 2014 Jan 21. Epub ahead of print. doi: 10.1200/JCO.2013.52.3696; Halabi S, Lin CY, Kelly WK, Fizazi KS, Moul JW, Kaplan EB, Morris MJ, Small EJ.
Joel T. Nowak, M.A., M.S.W.